Trump's census plan could reshape voting maps, eliminate race questions

The Trump administration's renewed plan to redefine the U.S. census could fundamentally alter the way congressional districts are drawn and may prompt extensive legal battles. The administration is considering excluding undocumented immigrants and those lacking lawful permanent status from the 2030 census, a move that would deviate from decades of established practices.

According to William Frey, a Brookings Metro demographer, the administration seeks to define "real Americans," diverging from the traditional census methodology. The proposed changes could profoundly impact the census process, its outcomes, and public trust in its accuracy. Former House subcommittee staffer Terri Ann Lowenthal warns that the alterations could undermine the integrity of future census results.

Last August, Trump directed the Commerce Department to initiate work on a new census excluding undocumented immigrants, with a field test using the American Community Survey (ACS) form already underway. While the precise impact on congressional apportionment remains uncertain, a 2020 Pew Research Center analysis suggests that removing unauthorized immigrants from the apportionment count would have resulted in three states—California, Florida, and Texas—losing a House seat each.

The administration is also seeking to eliminate race and ethnicity questions from the census and bar inquiries about sexual orientation. These moves deviate from the census's long-standing practice of collecting such data since 1790. Currently, the ACS includes demographic questions, but Lowenthal contends that it is not designed to count the entire population, unlike the decennial census, which serves as the benchmark for all other samples.

Race and ethnicity data from the ACS is insufficient to enforce civil rights laws, including fair housing, equal educational opportunities, and the Voting Rights Act, Lowenthal notes. Insights Association, a trade organization for market research and data analytics, has raised concerns about the lack of an authoritative, universal benchmark for race and ethnicity data, warning that without it, survey results cannot be reliably generalized to the public.

Legal challenges are inevitable, with New York Attorney General Letitia James already expressing readiness to challenge the administration's census proposals.