The long shadow of 9/11 and the retreat of an independent New Zealand foreign policy

On this day 25 years ago, the world's most powerful nation was unable to prevent a terrorist attack on its own soil. Since that day, a number of trends have emerged that have shaped the world and New Zealand's place in it. The US's response to 9/11 led to a quagmire in Afghanistan, an illegal invasion of Iraq, and an ill-defined "war on terror."

This era has been marked by the erosion of an international rules-based system previously led by the US. The Iraq invasion, China's assertiveness in the South China Sea, and Russia's annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine all indicate a new era of power politics. The US has managed to prevent another 9/11, but this has come at a cost in terms of America's power, autonomy, and influence.

The post-9/11 world has also been characterized by borderless issues like climate change, pandemics, terrorism, and supply chain fragility that require international cooperation. The first quarter of this century has seen an absence of global leadership, with the UN Security Council reduced to the role of the international bystander.

New Zealand, traditionally a supporter of multilateralism, initially managed to navigate the emerging new world order successfully. However, perceptions began to shift after 2016 due to growing concern about China's assertiveness. In response, the National-led coalition elected in 2016 pledged closer alignment with traditional allies, particularly the US.

This has led to a "softly softly" approach to the disruption of international relations and trade, with New Zealand refusing to publicly challenge the Trump administration's threats against liberal democratic allies. Despite this, the National-led government has continued to strengthen military ties with the US, seeking closer alignment even if it means some cost to a distinctive foreign policy.