Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas Poll Conducted with Trump's Go-to Pollster
Fabrizio served as Trump's pollster during his presidential campaigns.
In a recent AARP poll conducted with Tony Fabrizio, the go-to pollster for President Donald Trump, Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race by 4 points. The poll, which surveyed 895 likely voters from August 30 to September 1, 2026, showed Talarico with 48 percent support and Paxton with 44 percent.
The poll also revealed that Talarico received 22 points more support from independent voters (55 percent) than Paxton (33 percent). Meanwhile, Paxton still held 83 percent support among Republicans, while Talarico had 94 percent support among Democrats. Despite these numbers, Talarico's net favorability stood at +7 points, while Paxton's was -11 points.
Recent polls have shown Talarico either tied with or leading Paxton in Texas, with prediction markets giving both candidates a 50 to 51 percent chance of winning the seat in November.
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