SpaceX Trades at 98 Times Sales. Here's What Amazon's Multiple Looked Like at the Same Stage.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) currently trades at a market capitalization of $2.1 trillion and a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 98. Some observers are drawing comparisons to Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) during the dot-com bubble era. At its peak, Amazon's stock was considered expensive, but long-term investors who bought the stock at those levels reaped significant gains.

In 2009, a rare "Double Down" signal emerged for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia, and now a similar signal is flashing for SpaceX. This is not a direct apples-to-apples comparison, as today SpaceX generates $23 billion in annual revenue, whereas Amazon generated $24.5 billion in revenue in 2009. Amazon's gross margins were lower than SpaceX's today, but it was more profitable, with $1.1 billion in operating earnings compared to SpaceX's negative net profitability.

While Amazon's P/S ratio was between 1.5 and 2.5 in 2009, SpaceX's P/S ratio stands at 98 today. If Amazon had been valued at around SpaceX's current multiple, its market cap would have been around $2.4 trillion. Today, Amazon's market cap is $2.77 trillion. Adjusting for two decades of shareholder dilution, the stock price might be lower in 2026 compared to 2009, even with substantial growth from Amazon Web Services (AWS).

It is essential to consider that price matters in investing, and while SpaceX is growing rapidly and has a better gross margin than Amazon did in 2009, its valuation appears potentially overpriced if it reaches the same P/S ratio as Amazon did in 2009.