Myanmar seeks closer foreign ties amid global isolation

Myanmar's military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, recently concluded a three-day visit to Vietnam, where the two nations agreed to enhance defense and security relations. This is not the first time Hlaing has traveled abroad since assuming the presidency in April as the result of a military-led election widely deemed a farce. In the span of just five months, he has visited India, China, Laos, Thailand, and Russia. He is set to travel to Cambodia on Friday, bringing the total to seven countries visited in such a short time.

Hunter Marston, head of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, believes these visits signal an acceleration of Myanmar's strategy to diversify its partnerships and normalize bilateral relations. Despite the numerous war crimes allegations against the regime, including those aimed at Hlaing, analysts argue that Myanmar is slowly returning to the international stage.

However, the country remains heavily sanctioned and has one of the most severe human rights records in the world. Its efforts to normalize relations are largely limited to countries that had prior ties with the military regime.

ASEAN, which Myanmar is a part of, has barred Hlaing and his foreign ministers from attending senior-level meetings until substantial progress is made in the peace plan agreed upon in April 2021. Myanmar's new parliament has rejected the plan and dismissed ASEAN's special envoys, making it unlikely that Hlaing and his ministers will attend any ASEAN summits soon.

However, Thailand, with its significant business and security interests in Myanmar, is keen on pursuing calibrated engagement and has expressed optimism about the country's potential reintegration into the regional bloc once Thailand assumes the ASEAN chairmanship in 2028.

Other countries, such as Japan and South Korea, might also consider normalizing relations with Myanmar in the coming year, given their existing investments and trade ties. However, Western countries are unlikely to lift the sanctions placed on Myanmar, especially if the International Criminal Court ultimately decides to pursue charges against Hlaing and his regime.