Machtkampf im Jemen: Huthi auf dem Vormarsch – neue Gefahr für die Schifffahrt?

In Yemen, situated on the southern end of the Red Sea, power dynamics are shifting with the Huthi militia gaining control over the strategically important port city of Mukalla on the western coast. This development puts the Huthi, backed by Iran, closer to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical chokepoint for global maritime traffic.

What do these recent developments mean? The Yemen crisis, which has been ongoing for years, has recently escalated once again. Supported by Iran, the Huthi are fighting against the internationally recognized government and its allies. Since 2022, a ceasefire largely observed by all parties has crumbled. The current battles are described as the fiercest in recent years.

The Huthi are part of the Iranian "Axis of Resistance," a regional network of Iran-backed militias, which receives weapons, technology, expertise, and financial support from Tehran. On the other side are the Yemeni government, supported by Saudi Arabia, and loyalist forces. Parts of the western coast are under control of the National Resistance Forces, led by Tarik Salih, the nephew of the late former president.

These forces have become strategic partners in the fight against the Huthi, against whom Saudi-led forces are also conducting airstrikes. What is the significance of Mukalla? Located just north of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Mukalla is one of the world's most important shipping routes. By capturing Mukalla, the Huthi would control much of Yemen's western coast, making it easier for them to threaten or impede shipping traffic in the Red Sea.

They could potentially shoot at ships with artillery, rather than relying solely on rockets or drones. The strait is only about 20 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, making it significantly narrower than the Hormuz Strait, which is around 50 kilometers wide. Gaining greater control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait would be a significant setback for Saudi Arabia and international shipping.

The US and EU have attempted to protect trade ships from Huthi attacks through military interventions. The Huthi have previously attacked ships in the Red Sea during the Gaza conflict, disrupting international shipping. Since July, the Huthi have threatened a blockade of shipping for Saudi Arabia and have attacked several ships, forcing others to change course.

What role does the Iran war play? The Yemen conflict is closely linked to the Iran war. According to Yemen expert Nadwa Dausari, Iran is using the Huthi militia, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, as a bargaining chip. Controlling Mukalla and the Bab al-Mandab Strait could serve as a form of pressure, similar to how the Hormuz Strait is used as an alternative route to compensate for losses at the Hormuz Strait.

However, the Huthi are acting somewhat independently of Iran, primarily aiming to maintain and expand their power in Yemen. The strait has become an alternative route to compensate for losses at the Hormuz Strait throughout the war. A stronger position of the Huthi on Yemen's western coast could put even more pressure on international trade and global energy supply, in addition to potentially blocking the Hormuz Strait.

According to Israeli military expert Danny Citrinowicz, the mere threat of Huthi attacks is enough to put pressure on Saudi Arabia. A robust Huthi actor threatening the Bab al-Mandab Strait, putting pressure on Saudi Arabia, and draining US resources would be viewed as a success by Iran. Could regional defense pacts ensure security?

The Huthi's capture of Mukalla also poses a challenge to other regional states. Pakistan has reportedly requested Iran to rein in the Huthi multiple times. During a visit, Army chief Asim Munir is said to have warned Tehran that Pakistan would respond if the Huthi disrupted shipping in the Red Sea. Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have recently formed a defense pact, agreeing that an attack on one of them would be considered an attack on all.

However, direct involvement of Pakistani fighter jets from bases in Saudi Arabia seems unlikely, according to security sources in Islamabad. It is possible, though, that air defense systems stationed there could be used to counter Huthi attacks. Citrinowicz questions the viability of a defense pact that only functions during peace times.

He writes on X that a pact that only works when there is no war is unlikely to be a reliable defense pact.