HSBC Raises 2026 Brent Forecast to $90 as Hormuz Crisis Drags On
HSBC has hiked its Brent Crude forecast for 2026 to $90 per barrel from $80 as the Strait of Hormuz crisis is tightening markets while no clear path to de-escalation is in sight. The oil markets are unlikely to rebalance until the middle of 2027, HSBC analyst Kim Fustier wrote in a note, as cited by The Wall Street Journal. The bank’s base-case scenario for the coming weeks and months is a…
HSBC has raised its forecast for Brent Crude oil prices in 2026 to $90 per barrel, up from $80, due to the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Analyst Kim Fustier of HSBC explained that the current oil market is unlikely to rebalance until mid-2027, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. Fustier believes that a fragile understanding between the United States and Iran may develop, but remains vulnerable to breakdowns and uncertainties, including issues related to shipping security and insurance.
Today, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are projected to reach around 8 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, compared to the current 6 million barrels per day. While this estimate is lower than other analyst projections, it still signifies half of the pre-war daily oil transit levels through the chokepoint, which ranged from 19-20 million barrels per day.
HSBC expects these flows to gradually increase to 9.5 million barrels per day by mid-2027, leading to prolonged tightness in the oil markets for an additional year. This higher Brent Crude forecast of $90 per barrel for 2026 could potentially rise to $120 per barrel if the U.S.-Iran tanker war escalates into a full-fledged stalemate, as suggested by HSBC's 'stalemate' scenario.
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