Houthi threat pushes Yemen to civil war

Iranian Revolutionary Guards have provided direct guidance to Yemen's Houthis as they seized the southwestern port city of Mocha, according to Yemeni, Iranian, and regional sources. This advance has strengthened the Houthis' control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial waterway that, if disrupted, would further limit global energy supplies following Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Houthis have been focused on consolidating their grip on the strait while government forces backed by Saudi Arabia concentrate on an offensive in the north.

Iran reportedly instructed the Houthis to escalate their attacks on Saudi Arabia and promised additional funding, weapons, and senior officers to assist them. While Iran claims the Houthis are an ally and not a proxy, it publicly denies providing military direction. However, Iranian sources say the seizure of Mocha was a Houthi decision but benefited Iran by raising oil prices and harming the United States and Saudi Arabia.

The Houthis' advance has been bolstered by weapons and personnel support from Iran, despite a blockade of Houthi areas. Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst, believes the group's recent success is due to new weapons gained either directly from Iran or through smuggling networks. The Houthis have also acquired advanced capabilities, such as using drones in their latest offensive.

The Saudi-backed government in Yemen, recognized by the international community, has received directives from the Revolutionary Guards to direct the new Houthi campaign along the Red Sea coast. Iranian sources could not confirm these claims, yet they have previously described Abdolreza Shahlaei, a top Revolutionary Guards commander, as having spent time in Yemen recently.

The Houthis' advance on the west coast is seen as a significant milestone in the conflict, according to Nagi, who attributes it to the new weapons and resources acquired through Iranian support.