Getting the tanker war right: A history of blockades from the US Civil War to Iran - analysis
Getting the tanker war right will be a challenge for the US because of the factors involved. The White House is already signaling that the conflict and high oil prices will continue through midterms.
The United States finds itself in a kind of tit-for-tat conflict with Iran, primarily centered around the Strait of Hormuz. This ongoing struggle began with strikes by the US and Israel on Iran in February, and has since evolved into a complex battle fought in a unique environment. Iran, bordering the Strait, has a significant advantage in defending the waterway, despite being a weaker country.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has adopted a new approach to this conflict, sinking Iranian tankers in retaliation for Iranian attacks on US ships.
Iranian threats against shipping in the Gulf are multifaceted, involving various drones and missiles. The country's proximity to the Strait makes it challenging to defend the hundreds of miles of water, a reality that history has shown will favor the bordering nation. US forces have been conducting naval blockades for centuries, employing methods such as clearing mines to ensure safe shipping. However, gaining the upper hand in this conflict is proving to be a lengthy process.
The US has faced similar challenges in the past, including the blockade of the Confederate States during the Civil War, which took years of effort. Napoleon's failed attempt to blockade Britain in 1806, and the Germans' use of submarines during World Wars I and II, serve as reminders that naval blockades can be a protracted endeavor. Similarly, the decade-long siege of Montevideo, Uruguay, demonstrates the difficulty of achieving victory through blockade alone.
The US has experience with tanker wars, having dealt with the Iran-Iraq conflict in the 1980s, where both sides targeted shipping. Given Iran's continued warnings and threats against ships, the US must determine whether sinking Iranian tankers will prompt Tehran to reconsider its strategy. However, it is unclear whether Iran will resort to alternative tactics, such as attacking energy installations or increasing threats against Jordan.
Iran's belief in its options and a long front line to exploit, including its border with Iraq and the Gulf, as well as its presence in Yemen and the Red Sea, present further challenges for the US in achieving success in this tanker war.
Written by urgent.news from Jerusalem Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
