El petróleo supera los 105 dólares, máximos desde mayo

Crude oil prices have surged past $105 per barrel, reaching their highest level since May, driven by instability in the Middle East. The conflict between the United States and Iran continues to loom large, with no resolution in sight despite Donald Trump's promise to wrap things up following the mid-term elections. This has increased concerns over global energy supply.

Recently, Houthi rebels, aligned with Iran, seized control of the Yemeni port of Mocha, posing a greater threat to Red Sea shipping routes. Meanwhile, Persian Gulf shipping remains restricted due to intensified attacks on tankers in the region. Despite the turmoil, Julius Baer highlights concerns over supply, but notes the surprisingly stable performance of the market, as Middle Eastern exports and global oil inventories remain robust.

The current hostilities have not dented the established supply trends. However, this perception gap suggests an unusually high risk premium is priced into oil. Fundamental analysis suggests caution, warns Norbert R�cker, Julius Baer's Economic Research Director. ING, on the other hand, points out that China, the world's largest crude importer, has ramped up purchases in recent weeks after months of weak demand, boosting physical crude markets.

Should Chinese purchases continue to recover, they could amplify the impact of any supply disruptions and push prices higher. Conversely, a reduction in imports might temper market profits. OPEC recently cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day. While member countries boosted production by 1.6% in August, Reuters surveys show actual output fell 640,000 barrels daily due to Saudi export interruptions stemming from the Iran war and a U.S. embargo limiting Iranian shipments.