Dangote refinery could propel Nigeria’s GDP to $600bn – Rewane

Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives Company, predicts Nigeria's GDP could reach $600 billion by 2030. The projected growth is attributed to private-sector investment and large industrial projects, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Rewane emphasized the refinery's potential as a growth catalyst, boosting investment, manufacturing, exports, and the naira's value.

During an investor roadshow in Abuja, he projected Nigeria's nominal GDP to grow from $278 billion in 2025 to $600 billion by 2030, with annual real GDP growth accelerating from 4% to 7-8%. This growth is contingent on inflation moderating to 8-10%, non-oil GDP growth expanding to 7-8%, and oil production rising to 2.2 million barrels per day.

Rewane's projections also envision investment increasing from 26% to 36% of GDP, manufacturing growth accelerating from 3% to 8-10%, and energy supply reliability significantly improving. He likened the refinery's impact to the growth spurts experienced in Vietnam, Mauritius, and Rwanda. Dangote Group's Aliko Dangote announced plans to raise N2.15tn ($1.6bn) through an IPO to finance the refinery's expansion, offering shares at N525 each with a minimum subscription of 10 shares. The IPO's net proceeds will finance the refinery's growth, not its balance sheet.