Czech Koruna: CNB stance leaves room for weakness against Euro – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes that the Czech National Bank (CNB) blackout period has started, with Deputy Governor Zamrazilova signalling a preference to keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting.
The Euro (EUR) climbed above 1.1640 against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday's early European session, buoyed by a weakening US Dollar amid broad market uncertainty. EUR/USD reached a 12-day high just above the threshold, as traders anticipate Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting. However, the rally is expected to be modest, with oil prices reaching their highest level in three months due to deteriorating conditions in the Gulf.
Iran attacked a US Navy warship and a Jordanian airbase on Tuesday, followed by Houthi militias targeting oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, escalating the conflict risk. The US Dollar, despite strong Nonfarm Payrolls data, remains subdued, awaiting Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for potential clues on Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike prospects.
Rabobank analysts note the "USD's dithery tone" and argue that recent events, including the Treasury Secretary's bond intervention, have weakened confidence in the greenback, hindering its upside potential. The ECB meeting, starting in Frankfurt, Germany, only features Christine Lagarde's speech, where she won't discuss monetary policy as the central bank holds a two-day meeting.
The ECB's main goal is price stability, targeting a 2% inflation rate, achieved by adjusting interest rates. In extreme cases, the ECB can employ Quantitative Easing (QE) to weaken the Euro, while Quantitative Tightening (QT) strengthens it when the economy recovers and inflation rises. Oil prices remain volatile, with diesel crack spreads nearing $102 per barrel after a record high.
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