China independent refiners scramble for oil, underpinning spot premiums

Chinese independent refiners have been actively seeking crude oil from West Africa, Canada, and South America in recent weeks, driving spot premiums to multi-month highs. As they replace dwindling Iranian and Russian supplies, these purchases are tightening physical markets further, with Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel due to reduced Gulf exports via the Strait of Hormuz following escalating US-Iran tensions.

Over the past few weeks, Chinese independents have acquired cargoes from these regions, with total purchases exceeding 20 million barrels, according to estimates from two traders. Nearly 10 Chinese independent refineries attended an annual industry gathering in Singapore to secure available supplies and negotiate deals. While typically attending for networking, this time the team was more focused on their urgent need for oil.

China's smaller independent refiners, known as teapots, account for a fifth of the country's crude imports and have relied on cheaper supplies from sanctioned producers in recent years. However, the US naval blockade on Iran has restricted its exports, and major Chinese refiners like Sinopec and Yulong Petrochemical are buying the bulk of Russian ESPO Blend from the Far East port of Kozmino, leaving teapots to turn to spot markets for replacements.

Recent cargoes of Congolese Djeno and Angolan Plutonio crude have been sold at premiums of about $22 per barrel above ICE Brent for November delivery. Teapots are also in talks to buy domestic crude produced in Xinjiang for later delivery, and have acquired at least four Aframax-sized cargoes of heavy Canadian crude via the Trans Mountain pipeline.

Spot purchases by teapots are expected to lift Chinese seaborne imports to 8.5-9 million barrels per day, up from 7 million in July, but still far below their pre-war level of around 10 million barrels per day.