Canada needs up to 4.69 million new homes by 2036, but construction could slow: CMHC

The federal housing agency, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), estimates that Canada may need as many as 4.69 million new homes by 2036 to restore pre-pandemic affordability levels. However, construction of new housing units could potentially slow down, according to the agency's latest supply gap estimate report released on September 10, 2026.

To reach affordability targets, CMHC suggests that between 417,000 and 469,000 new housing units are required annually over the next decade across both the ownership and rental markets. While this is a slight decrease from their July 2025 estimate, which projected a need for roughly 430,000 to 480,000 new units per year, concerns remain about the pace of home construction.

Recent affordability gains may be at risk due to anticipated construction slowdowns, particularly in the ownership market, according to CMHC deputy chief economist Aled ab Iorwerth. The deputy chief economist points to factors such as slower population growth that have contributed to lower housing costs, but warns that underbuilding during this softer market could lead to a larger housing shortage later when demand strengthens.

CMHC's supply gap estimates show varying levels of improvement across different Canadian cities. The housing supply gap has narrowed in Toronto and remained stable in Vancouver, but it has grown larger in Montreal and Ottawa. Meanwhile, Calgary has seen record construction that has narrowed its housing supply gap significantly, while Edmonton remains the only large market in Canada without a housing supply gap.