Cameras disabled, inspectors blocked: Nuclear watchdog asks for help with Iran

The UN nuclear watchdog is urging the body to hold Iran accountable for its failure to comply with safeguards designed to prevent nuclear weapons development, according to diplomatic officials. This comes as part of a decade-long effort to monitor Iran, which has seen the country go from compliance to actively obstructing inspection efforts such as disabling cameras and engaging in invasive searches of inspectors.

The 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the US, alongside other countries, established the most extensive nuclear inspection regime, overseen by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). For many years, Iran adhered to the agency's inspectors. However, following President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the deal, Iran systematically violated its nuclear safeguards, according to IAEA reports.

Former US diplomats and IAEA officials have criticized Iran's behavior, describing it as "rope-a-dope," where Iran consistently makes it difficult for the IAEA to access their facilities, while presenting false or implausible information. The UN nuclear watchdog has sometimes downplayed issues for political reasons, including a desire to avoid confrontation with Iran.

The saga highlights the challenges of monitoring and verification when faced with intentional noncompliance, leading experts to believe that even a full diplomatic solution, including a new nuclear deal, may not be enough to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb. James Acton, a physicist and head of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's nuclear policy division, believes there is a 50-50 chance Iran will acquire the bomb within the next three years.

The International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors voted on Wednesday to refer Iran to the Security Council, with Russia, China, and Niger voting against the action. Iran's ambassador to the IAEA denounced the resolution as "political" and "nonconsensually adopted." The UN body last reported Iran to the Security Council in early 2006, when they responded with sanctions against the regime.

It remains uncertain whether the Security Council will take similar action this time, as Russia and China, as permanent members of the body, may veto proposed actions.