Anthropic sees AI driving GDP growth, but warns of job losses, wage pressure
Artificial intelligence could significantly accelerate economic growth by 2030, but faster AI adoption may also put pressure on employment and wages of knowledge workers, particularly in scenarios where AI becomes capable of autonomously performing a large share of knowledge-intensive tasks, according to Anthropic's latest economic outlook.
Anthropic's latest economic outlook suggests that artificial intelligence could catalyze substantial economic growth by 2030, yet warns of potential job losses and wage pressures for knowledge workers. In three hypothetical scenarios - modest, substantial, and extreme - the AI-powered future of the US economy is modeled and compared.
AI is projected to boost GDP in all scenarios, but the extent of growth varies wildly. In the modest scenario, AI's impact is akin to the internet's, resulting in gradual gains within the historical range of technological progress. Meanwhile, under the substantial scenario, AI could handle half of all knowledge work by 2030, propelling the economy to grow at around double its normal rate. This would result in a US GDP of USD 36.3 trillion, or 8.3% higher than it would be without AI.
The extreme scenario paints an even more dramatic picture, with AI potentially outperforming humans in most knowledge-intensive tasks and performing nearly all such work autonomously. In this case, GDP could soar to USD 44.4 trillion, a 32.4% jump above the baseline. However, this rapid automation of knowledge work could lead to significant unemployment and decreased wages for affected workers.
In the substantial scenario, while AI's adoption may not immediately boost wages for knowledge workers, those in other occupations could see stronger wage growth, keeping wages roughly flat for knowledge workers. In the extreme scenario, the rapid automation of knowledge work could result in uneven economic gains, with labor's share of GDP dropping to 45.2% while capital's share rises to 54.8%.
The future, Anthropic emphasizes, is not predetermined, but depends on factors such as AI capabilities, adoption decisions by companies, and how the financial benefits of the technology are distributed.
Written by urgent.news from Economic Times Tech's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
