미 정부 재정적자에 계속 오르는 장기국채 금리…‘AI발 경제성장’ 분석도

Recently, long-term government bond rates in major countries, including the United States and Japan, have been on the rise, with various perspectives emerging to explain the cause. The financial markets analyze that the increasing competition among nations in expanding their budgets leads to growing debt, while artificial intelligence (AI) companies join in issuing bonds to expand their investments, making the global long-term government bond rate reluctant to decline.

On the other hand, the analysis concludes that the rising rates in the AI economy are due to production efficiency improvements and expected economic growth, eliminating any reason to be concerned about further rate hikes. As of 3 p.m. on September 9th (local time), the 10-year U.S. government bond rate in the New York bond market traded at 4.835%, reflecting a 3.00bp (1bp = 0.01% point) increase from the previous trading day's 3 p.m. benchmark.

This rate reached a high of 4.856% earlier in 2023 November. The 30-year government bond rate, with the longest maturity, rose by 2.10bp to 5.2850%. In an effort to lower U.S. government bond rates, the Treasury Department doubled its bond-buyback program, which had been larger than before (US$20 billion) to US$40 billion. However, this measure did not yield the desired results, and the Treasury Department announced another increase in the buyback program to US$60 billion, but still could not alleviate concerns over the oversupply of government bonds.

Financial markets around the world blame the government's large budget deficit for the fundamental cause of the rise in long-term interest rates. Kim Gae-young, a correspondent for Hani News, reports that strategists at Swiss asset manager Robert Odie noted that the government's continuous large budget deficit cannot change the fundamental situation.

Analysts predict that as the era of the government "borrowing money" becomes more prevalent, budget deficits and government spending will continue to rise. Investment direction determination by the government is becoming the norm, with domestic industries receiving support and national defense strengthened in response to geopolitical conflicts.

In this context, the rise in U.S. long-term government bond rates is attributed to the productivity gains and economic growth expectations from AI investments. Real interest rates, excluding inflation effects, have risen as a natural consequence. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) rate, which reflects real interest rates, increased from 1.94% at the beginning of the year to 2.43% on September 8th.

Financial columnist Stewart Cockburn from The Financial Times notes that inflation expectations have remained stable in the United States and the United Kingdom, and that a rapidly growing and highly productive economy requires higher capital costs (market interest rates). As AI-driven growth potential expands, the real interest rate naturally rises, according to Cockburn.