US Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated
US consumers’ median one-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.6% in August 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. However, expected price growth for gas rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%, while food expectations increased 0.3 percentage point to 5.3%. Medical-care price expectations rose 0.2 percentage point to ...
Despite US consumers' median one-year inflation expectations remaining steady at 3.6% in August 2026, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, price growth expectations for gas surged 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%. Food expectations also rose 0.3 percentage points to 5.3%, while medical-care price expectations increased by 0.2 percentage points to 9.1%.
Expectations for college education costs climbed 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, and rent expectations rose 0.7 percentage points to 6.6%. Meanwhile, the five-year-ahead measure held at 3%, and three-year-ahead expectations dipped slightly to 3.2%. Median expectations for one-year-ahead earnings growth saw a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%.
Concerns about the labor market escalated, with the mean probability of higher unemployment in a year surging to 44.4%, marking the highest level since April 2020.
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