Surging crude oil prices: Rupee breaches 95/dollar mark

The Indian rupee breached the 95 to the US dollar mark on Wednesday, signaling a reversal of support from exceptional FCNR (B) deposit-related inflows. The rupee closed at 95.10 per dollar, down 29 paise from the previous session's close of 94.81. It opened 4 paise weaker at 94.86/87 and tested an intraday low of 95.2250, only to regain strength due to RBI intervention.

Amit Pabari, MD of CR Forex Advisors, explained that the surge in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in West Asia, is the primary pressure on the rupee. Brent crude oil has moved towards and above $100 per barrel, increasing dollar demand from oil importers and negatively impacting the rupee's value. Ritesh Bhansali, Deputy CEO of Mecklai Financial Services, highlighted that West Asia's ongoing conflict is the most sensitive element affecting the rupee's movement.

Despite a total of $136.37 billion flowing into India via FCNR (B) deposits, ECB and OFCB routes during June-August 2026, RBI's daily interventions have managed to stabilize the currency in the short term. The recent strength in the rupee was primarily driven by inflows, which are now tapering off, allowing underlying global pressures to become more apparent.