Several European states clarify settlement trade restrictions depend on EU action

BUENOS AIRES: Argentina's corn exports are projected to hit a record 10 million metric tons in August and September, fueled by an abundant harvest and heightened demand from international buyers looking for alternatives to Ukrainian supplies impacted by the ongoing conflict and European crops destroyed by extreme heat. Argentina, the world's third-largest corn exporter, recently concluded its 2025/26 harvest, totaling 71.70 million tons, a nearly 20% increase compared to the previous record set five years ago.

Gustavo Idigoras, head of the CIARA-CEC grains exporters and crushers chamber, stated that Argentine corn is currently highly competitive in both price and volume. Normal export volumes during August-September typically amount to around 3 million tons. The surge in demand, particularly from North African nations that usually purchase Ukrainian grain, is the primary catalyst for this growth.

In the past seven months of 2026, corn shipments to North Africa rose by 45%, reaching 6.50 million tons, compared to a 15% overall export growth during the same period. Morocco led the surge, increasing imports of Argentine corn by 133% year-on-year to 1.55 million tons, while Egypt experienced a 48% increase to 2.40 million tons, and Algeria saw a 10% increase to 2.40 million tons.

The trade shift comes amid Russia's intensifying strikes on Ukrainian export infrastructure in the Black Sea region, effectively blocking seaports that once handled 90% of Ukraine's grain exports. This has forced Kyiv to divert cargo through lower-capacity Danube River ports. However, drought and record heat waves across Europe have further constrained Ukrainian shipments by reducing water levels along the already congested Danube, which dropped by 52% last month.

Analyst Javier Preciado Patiño noted that Ukraine's overseas markets, including Europe, are now available due to the road transport limitation. Brazil's corn exports have slipped nearly 20% from the record 53 million tons over the past three years, presenting an opportunity for Argentina. Much of the corn that would have been loaded at Brazilian ports such as Santos or Itaqui is now supporting Brazil's growing ethanol industry, which comprises over 300 production units.

This decline in Brazil's corn exports leaves more corn available for shipping, creating better commercial prospects for Argentine exporters.