Reform’s funding scandal is scaring away the very voters it should be appealing to

Reform UK's recent funding scandal has been generating significant buzz among voters, particularly former Conservatives who were likely to be swayed by the party. The row over unlawful donations at the party's Birmingham conference last week, along with resignations of key aides and ongoing investigations, has overshadowed the event.

Despite attempts to present a united front, the situation has taken a toll on Reform's reputation. A recent City AM/Freshwater Strategy Poll reveals that the party's national vote share has dropped to 25 per cent, five points lower than in February, while Labour has taken a narrow lead at 26 per cent, up nine points. Reform's leader, Nigel Farage, has a personal rating of -24, the lowest since polling began last year, with Labour's Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch preferred as Prime Minister over him.

The allegations have made 41 per cent of all voters less likely to consider voting for Reform, while 60 per cent of Conservative voters, the party's key recruitment pool, see the allegations as a problem. Among Reform's own supporters, 69 per cent consider the affair exaggerated, and 81 per cent believe the party is no worse than others.

However, 33 per cent of Reform supporters say the allegations make them more likely to vote for the party. The allegations have undoubtedly raised concerns about Reform's standards and financial management, with 49 per cent of voters believing the party faces more issues with standards and money than other parties. The party's recent rise to prominence has been driven largely by a rejection of other parties rather than a genuine endorsement of Reform.

Labour's change of leader, Burnham, has also impacted the political landscape, becoming the country's most positively perceived major political figure. However, opinions on Burnham are mixed, with 24 per cent saying he is doing a good job and 16 per cent a bad job. Overall, Reform's support appears to be declining, and it remains to be seen whether the party can recover and potentially form a majority government.