Liberalism needs a new philosophy of immigration

Germany’s far-right party, the AfD, just secured a landslide victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. This does not signify the party’s rise to power across Germany, as far-right sentiment is more prevalent in the post-communist east compared to the densely populated western regions. Germany operates as a parliamentary democracy, with a significant majority disliking and fearing the AfD.

However, the provincial triumph is a cause for concern and is being taken seriously across Germany and Europe. The surge of the AfD indicates two crucial aspects: firstly, it demonstrates that the rise of far-right parties was not solely a reaction to the pandemic; and secondly, it reveals that German voters are so frustrated that they are prepared to overlook the party’s numerous flaws.

Various socialist factions have attempted to argue that AfD’s new supporters are responding to economic hardship, which could potentially be addressed through socialism. Nonetheless, more pragmatic voices agree that the underlying issue lies in immigration. Adam Tooze, who largely identifies as left-leaning, attempts to be considerate when explaining that there's no avoiding the immigration issue: when inquired about AfD voters’ concerns, apart from their xenophobic worries about "too many foreigners", they also express concerns over living costs, their standard of living, climate change, and the threat of external war.

However, when asked about their perception of the AfD and the reasons for their vote, economic matters are scarcely mentioned. The AfD's appeal, particularly in the current climate, is not about addressing economic issues through social democracy, welfare, or government intervention. Instead, it is a vote to curb foreigners [emphasis added].

Robin Brooks conveys the matter more straightforwardly: while there are many developments happening in Germany at the moment, the surge in AfD popularity can be attributed to the CDU-SPD grand coalition's failure to tackle immigration with the urgency that many voters desire. The surge in AfD popularity is primarily driven by the fact that the CDU-SPD coalition is unable to address immigration issues in a timely manner.

This frustration over immigration is likely the primary reason for the rise of far-right parties across Europe. Research by Konstantinou and Roumanas (2024) supports this notion, as they analyzed regional data from over 4,500 electoral outcomes between 2000 and 2017 to evaluate the impact of immigration on far-right voting in Western European countries.

Their findings indicate that a 1% increase in immigration corresponds to a 1.78% to 2.97% increase in far-right voting. These effects are significant and account for a substantial portion of the observed rise in far-right parties during the sample period. The trend of increasing far-right parties is unlikely to abate in the near future, as evidenced by the increasing emphasis on irregular migration and border security in political discussions across the European Union.