James Talarico's Chances Against Ken Paxton After Latest AI Attack Ad
Republican and Democratic rivals remain closely matched as AI attack ads intensify a competitive Texas Senate election campaign.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton unveiled an AI-generated political ad against Democratic State Representative James Talarico. The attack ad targeted Talarico's religious statements as their Texas Senate race entered its final stages. While polling is currently close, prediction markets remain uncertain about the Democrat's chances of overcoming Texas' Republican leanings.
Voters must discern genuine remarks from a synthetic performance, as the ad contains words and actions that never occurred together. Paxton's campaign shared the video on September 8, portraying an AI-generated version of Talarico writing in a book called "The King James Talarico Bible." The ad recited a passage from Talarico's previous remarks about Christianity, gender, and Jesus.
Political commentator Mehdi Hasan criticized the ad, calling for outlawing such advertising. Meanwhile, X user Frank Luntz questioned whether it was the first nationwide TV ad with AI depicting a political opponent. Texas Public Opinion Research, Emerson College Polling, and the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project all surveyed likely voters in late August.
Their results showed varying margins, with Talarico leading in two polls and Paxton leading in one. Prediction markets also showed a slight divergence in favor of Paxton, with Kalshi favoring him 53 to 47 percent and Polymarket showing an even contest at 51 to 51 percent. Talarico responded by attacking Paxton's tenure as attorney general, featuring former aide David Maxwell in a new campaign ad.
Maxwell alleged that Paxton ended his long career in public service after he blew the whistle on the attorney general's corruption. Paxton denied wrongdoing, was acquitted by the Republican-controlled Texas Senate, and the Justice Department declined to pursue federal charges. A judge later ordered Texas to pay $6.6 million to four former aides in their whistleblower case.
The competing messages leave voters with different character assessments, with Paxton challenging Talarico's theology and Talarico challenging Paxton's conduct in office. The outcome of the next polls will reveal whether the AI controversy altered opinions or simply energized committed voters.
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