El boom de los préstamos de la IA sacude el mercado crediticio suizo

The rise of AI-backed loans is shaking the Swiss credit market, as corporate bond issuances led by tech giants like Alphabet and Amazon account for over a quarter of Swiss franc issuances this year. The AI-driven loan boom in the United States is transforming Switzerland's traditionally conservative bond market, driven by the multi-billion franc issuances by these tech giants.

This influx is beginning to impact domestic borrowers, with some Swiss companies altering the timing or size of their bond issuances to avoid competing with large US tech operations for investor demand, according to analysts.

AI-related companies have represented 26.4% of Swiss corporate debt issuances in francs so far this year, according to a new study by Zurich Insurance, the largest proportion in any major credit market. Arthur Jurus, chief economist and head of investments at the European financial group Oddo BHF, said the issuances by hyper-scalers represent a structural scale change in the Swiss market.

This change is part of a broader transformation of global credit markets, as the high cost of building AI infrastructure is leading US tech companies to seek financing outside the dollar market. Large US tech firms have increasingly turned to loans in euros, pounds, Canadian dollars, Australian dollars, and yen to access new investor groups.

Zurich estimates that Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle will collectively invest around $5.5 trillion between 2025 and 2030. The impact has been especially noticeable in Switzerland due to the country's small market size. Alphabet raised nearly 3 billion Swiss francs in February and Amazon raised 2.82 billion in May, each operation equivalent to nearly 2% of the existing corporate market.

Jurus of Oddo BHF said these transactions were more than ten times the size of a typical bond issuance on the SIX Swiss Exchange. Jurus explained that the Swiss market had traditionally been dominated by relatively small bond issuances, between 200 and 250 million Swiss francs ($250 and $309 million), acquired and held by pension funds and insurers, but now the market is absorbing operations on par with the euro market.

The arrival of AI companies has altered the market pace, as financial directors increasingly avoid periods when large tech companies place large volumes in the market, modifying the timing or size of their transactions instead of paying more to compete for investors. Financial directors are now aware that they must avoid weeks when a major tech company is managing demand for securities, according to Jurus.

The sale of Amazon's bonds worth 2.82 billion Swiss francs, for example, absorbed sufficient investor demand that some Swiss companies altered or reduced their own bond issuances to avoid having to pay higher interest rates. Puneet Sharma, director of market strategies at Zurich Insurance, said the arrival of hyper-scale companies was generally positive for the Swiss market, as they are strong issuers with massive cash flows, diversified operations, and excellent ratings.

However, Sharma warned that the large volume of issuances could become a limitation. He expressed concern about concentration limits, especially in small markets. Sharma noted that the size of operations could become an obstacle as investors typically set limits on the amount of bonds they can invest in a single company. As tech giants issue more debt and integrate more into bond indices, some investors could reach those limits and become reluctant to buy more, forcing companies to offer higher yields.

The impact is likely to be felt primarily through prices, with other borrowers potentially facing higher financing costs instead of being excluded from the market. Björn Sibbern, CEO of the SIX stock exchange operator, said the arrival of some of the world's largest companies demonstrated the Swiss franc market's significant development as an international source of financing.

Despite the increasing volume of operations, he affirmed that the market remained well-diversified among issuers and sectors, allowing it to absorb international borrowers without losing its role as a source of financing for Swiss companies.