Copper: Record highs driven by tariff uncertainty – ING
ING’s commodities team notes Copper has surged to fresh records on the LME, with three‑month futures nearing $14,800/t, as traders position for potential US tariffs on refined Copper imports.
Copper prices have reached record highs on the LME, reaching $14,800 per metric ton for three-month futures. Traders are positioning themselves for potential US tariffs on refined copper imports, as policy expectations have tightened availability outside the US and squeezed short positions. COMEX inventories have surged to record levels, while metal availability in the London market has become tighter, putting pressure on short positions.
The market is eagerly awaiting President Trump's decision on refined copper tariffs, which would impose a 15% duty from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. If approved, the tariffs could keep drawing metal into the US, further tightening the market. However, an exemption or delay could unwind the trade and alleviate tightness elsewhere.
Elevated copper prices are likely to remain elevated while tariff uncertainty persists, as the rally appears increasingly policy-driven. If tariffs are delayed or ruled out, prices could correct sharply, especially considering subdued demand.
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