Copper price pauses below record as China’s imports slump, mine supply heads for first drop since 2017

Copper prices paused near a record low on Wednesday as China's imports declined sharply, with mine supply expected to drop to its lowest level since 2017. The metal briefly touched $6.8730 on Tuesday before settling at $6.8545 by late morning, marking the highest level since December. In London, three-month copper slipped 0.4% to $14,645.50 a tonne after climbing to a record $14,779 on Tuesday.

China imported 382,000 tonnes of copper in August, down from 425,000 tonnes in July, representing the weakest August in six years. US imports of refined copper reached a record 225,094 tonnes in July, driven by Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo, despite no Congolese grade being deliverable on the Comex contract. Comex warehouses held a record 695,624 tonnes, while Shanghai's stocks dropped to the lowest level since January 2024.

The surge in demand has pushed marginal copper back into production, with high prices triggering restarts at the Collahuasi mine in Chile and Capstone Copper ramping up oxide leaching at Mantoverde. World mine production fell 1.1% in the first half of 2026, with a drop in concentrate output and a 4.6% rise in SX-EW cathode production.

Chile, which mines a quarter of the world's copper, saw a 6.6% decline in its production and Grasberg's Indonesian concentrate output dropped 32%. The International Copper Study Group forecast a 96,000-tonne refined surplus for 2026, but Morgan Stanley now expects mine supply to be flat or slightly lower, marking the first year of declining mine output since 2017. Analysts attribute the decline to declining grades, old assets, and a lack of new development.