What I Learned From 400 Focus Groups

During the early Trump era, focus groups taught me about the disconnect between Washington and what voters really care about. In July 2018, I flew to Columbus, Ohio, to speak with people who had supported Trump in 2016 but had done so reluctantly. Just three days earlier, Trump had attended a diplomatic summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

By then, U.S. intelligence had publicly concluded that Putin had personally ordered a campaign to meddle in the 2016 presidential election to benefit Trump. At a press conference following their meeting, Trump was asked whether he believed his own intelligence agencies or Putin. Trump replied, "President Putin says it’s not Russia.

I don’t see any reason why it would be." This undermined 80 years of American foreign policy and prompted a bipartisan meltdown in Washington.

I was excited to hear what heartland voters, who had once been Reagan's fiercest Cold Warriors, thought about this moment. When asked about Trump's comments, though, many participants gave blank stares. The moderator explained the incident, and while a few said Trump's comments were "wrong," the overall feeling was one of collective indifference.

I've since conducted over 400 focus groups with thousands of voters from various political backgrounds, and here's what I've learned: people are complex and contradictory. They lament political divisions while expressing anger towards their ideological opponents. They value grace but cut ties with people they disagree with politically.

They're critical of government but want it to spend more money to help them. They call themselves pro-life but support a woman's right to choose. It goes on and on.

Listening to voters is a crucial cheat code for understanding politics, but few people in politics actually do it. Campaigns and politicians rarely take the time to have in-depth conversations about why people feel the way they do. The further you get from everyday voters, the more disconnected you become from their needs and concerns.

Washington is a bubble, where the rest of America becomes an abstraction. As a former Republican who left the party after Trump took over, I witnessed this firsthand. I saw Trump as an existential threat to American liberal democracy, but voters have told me that they feel the same way. They think the system is broken and believe they've been lied to in ways that make their lives worse.

Fewer people now believe that hard work and following the rules will lead to success, as they see "establishment" politicians benefiting from the system while everyone else loses out. They want leaders who come across as real people who genuinely care about improving the day-to-day lives of voters, not just winning and holding political office.