Sensex, Nifty set for flat-to-negative opening

Indian stock markets are expected to open on a flat-to-negative note on Tuesday, with global market conditions and geopolitical tensions playing a significant role, according to market analysts. Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder & CEO of HST Wealth, stated that GIFT Nifty indicates a subdued opening, with crude oil being the primary pressure point.

Brent crude prices have risen to around $97 a barrel, breaking above a four-day high and sparking concerns over potential supply disruptions due to U.S.-Iran conflicts and Iran's announcement of a new restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz. The uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and its future reopening continues to weigh on global oil supplies and market sentiment.

Asian markets are showing a mixed performance, with Japan's Nikkei 225 remaining relatively stable and South Korea's Kospi up over 0.5%. This mixed regional performance suggests that investors are cautious in their risk-taking, closely monitoring crude oil prices, geopolitical events, and the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy. Technical analysis indicates that the index has formed a bearish candle on the daily chart, signaling a continuation of the correction, with immediate bias leaning towards a downward trend.

Analysts predict that sustaining below the 24,025 level will open the door for the index to fall towards the key support area of 23,600-23,500, which is formed by the convergence of the previous major gap and the July 2026 low. Conversely, a move above the 24,150 level, coinciding with the last week's high and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, could signal a potential respite from the downtrend.