Quanto vale a Foz do Amazonas para a Petrobras? As contas do Scotiabank

For Petrobras, the definitions surrounding the exploration of Foz do Amazonas are deemed far more crucial than the electoral results this year, according to analysts at Scotiabank, Jorge Gabrich and Pedro Nascimento. Their recent report highlights the region's significance in maintaining Petrobras' production levels beyond 2032, as current fields will begin to decline.

The northwest portion alone could attract five platform barges, extracting a total of 4.73 billion barrels over the exploratory program, with peak production estimated at 842,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2038, including gas. This output is comparable to the Búzios and Tupi fields in the pre-salt, which produce around 1 million bpd each.

The Foz do Amazonas is only the first to be explored in the Margins Equatorial, with the Amazonas cone and southeast areas remaining to be examined. The northwest portion alone could generate a net present value (NPV) of $15.9 billion, representing roughly 14% of Petrobras' valuation, or an additional R$ 6.65 per share. Even with a Brent price of $80, the NPV would reach $20.3 billion.

The ScotiaBank team factored in an estimated capital expenditure of $36 billion, with peak disbursements of $4 billion in 2034 and oil production beginning in 2033. Despite the distant timelines, the investment decision must be made years in advance under the next government. However, the presidential election is not seen as a concern as Petrobras will need to explore these reserves regardless of the election outcome.