Oil Prices Are Once Again on the Brink of $100

Oil prices have surged towards $100, driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, US strikes on Iranian tankers, and renewed Middle East tensions. Europe's gas prices have reached a 2022 high of €75 per MWh ($25.5 per MMBtu), prompting fears of winter supply shocks. The EU has not imported any Qatari LNG since early April, and its gas inventories are at 66% capacity, with Germany and the Netherlands particularly vulnerable.

LNG prices have climbed to $24.5 per MMBtu, with little backwardation between October and December. Six-month-high prices are hindering EU LNG purchases, with September imports expected to stay at August levels (7.5 million tonnes), down 13% year-over-year. Major players like TotalEnergies and Shell are exploring divestment options, while BP appointed new CEO lan Tyler.

Meanwhile, Iran is allegedly planning to establish a new maritime exclusion zone in the Gulf, potentially claiming UAE and Oman ports. Houthi strikes have crippled Saudi Aramco operations, and China's crude imports have rebounded as Beijing lifted its fuel export ban.