Novartis erleidet einen weiteren Rückschlag in der Forschung – der Aktienkurs bricht um über 10 Prozent ein

Novartis, the Swiss pharmaceutical company, has suffered another setback in its research efforts, resulting in a stock price drop of over 10%. The decline comes after a new drug candidate, Del-desiran, failed to show significant improvement in the treatment of myotone Dystrophy Type 1, a rare inherited muscle disorder. Despite years of research, no effective medication exists for this condition.

Novartis' extensive efforts in researching this product culminated in the termination of the Phase 3 clinical study in late July. The disappointing outcome of this trial has raised concerns about whether Novartis overpaid for its most significant acquisition to date, which cost the company $12 billion. The drug was acquired along with two related products as part of Novartis' $12 billion purchase of Avidity Biosciences, an American biotechnology firm.

Another failed trial involved Pelacarsen, a drug intended to prevent cardiovascular diseases. The study found that Pelacarsen did not outperform the placebo in reducing the lipoprotein(a) levels, which contribute to the formation of arterial plaque and inflammation. Analysts from Zürcher Kantonalbank and Morgan Stanley had projected a peak trading volume of $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively, for Pelacarsen.

Even though the drug had the potential to become a blockbuster with annual sales of at least $1 billion, it falls short compared to other blockbuster products in the pharmaceutical industry. Morgan Stanley analysts remain confident that the setback in developing this medication is "tolerable" for Novartis, as the company would have shared the revenue with its California partner, Ionis Pharmaceuticals.

However, the market observers from Morgan Stanley emphasize that the new drug Remibrutinib, aimed at treating multiple sclerosis (MS), is a more promising prospect. It is also in the final Phase 3 clinical development stage and has shown promising results in recent studies. Implied to generate $3-5 billion in annual revenue for Novartis, Remibrutinib could be sold as an oral tablet, a preference among many patients.

Currently, oral therapies account for only around 30% of the $20 billion market for MS treatments. However, analysts from Zürcher Kantonalbank predict this percentage could rise to 55% in the future due to the emergence of new oral therapies. Similarly, Roche, another company developing a drug against MS, is met with skepticism by Morgan Stanley analysts.

While Fenebrutinib, the active ingredient in Roche's product, has demonstrated high efficacy, concerns persist regarding its safety. A study by the Vontobel Bank highlights the absence of liver injury signals in recent trial results for Novartis' product, which is seen as a positive sign.