NBU estimates logistics disruption from Russian strikes adds 0.4-0.6 pp to annual inflation
The National Bank of Ukraine's baseline scenario, updated at the end of July — which raised the 2026 inflation forecast from 9.4% to 10.0% and the 2027 forecast from 6.5% to 6.9% — did not account for new attacks on logistics infrastructure and its destruction, which is producing a modest additional rise in consumer prices, Deputy NBU Governor Volodymyr Lepushynsky said in a column for…
The National Bank of Ukraine's latest estimates, released at the end of July, have raised the country's inflation forecast for 2026 and 2027 due to disruptions caused by Russian strikes on logistics infrastructure. Deputy NBU Governor Volodymyr Lepushynsky revealed in an Interfax-Ukraine column that this additional cost could add 0.4-0.6 percentage points to annual inflation by the end of 2026.
Most of this effect is expected to manifest itself in the fall, Lepushynsky explained, with the impact spread out over time. He noted that competition and weaker demand will help mitigate the full impact on consumer prices. However, the damage to warehouses and distribution centers does not always result in the complete loss being passed on to final shelf prices.
Since logistics and storage make up only about 8% of the average consumer price, businesses are constrained in how much they can increase costs and transfer them to consumers.
Consumer inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year in July, up from 7.2% in June, Lepushynsky reported. Early estimates suggest that this acceleration will continue into August, aligning with the NBU's expectations for price dynamics in the latter half of the year, though it slightly exceeds the July forecast.
Written by urgent.news from Interfax-Ukraine's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
