Keep a Record of What You Believed Before You Knew

Memory is not a straightforward record. Instead, it is a story that changes and evolves after we learn the outcome. When we recall past events, we often perceive ourselves as less certain than we actually were. This is not a sign of dishonesty; rather, it is how our memory naturally functions. Consequently, we cannot acquire judgment skills solely through memory.

The key to improvement lies in documenting our initial beliefs before making decisions. We should write down what we expect, not formulate a plan. Instead, we should predict the outcome. For instance, we might note that a process will take three weeks or that a shipment will arrive in March. If the prediction proves inaccurate, we can then attribute our mistake to the initial expectation, rather than the actual design.

This exercise requires only four lines - a date and a confidence level. Avoid using words like "certain"; instead, provide a numerical estimate, such as "seven out of ten." Finally, schedule a future review to assess the accuracy of our predictions. The value lies not in the act of writing but in revisiting the notes months later, once the outcome is known.

In this way, we gain valuable insights into our own decision-making process that no one else can provide. This practice not only enhances our self-awareness but also helps us improve over time. Furthermore, reviewing our past beliefs can transform a roomful of opinions into a more informed and productive discussion. Hindsight often makes us view the past through rose-colored glasses, making the decision-makers appear careless.

However, they were simply operating with limited information and without a predetermined outcome. Therefore, documenting our perspective at the time of decision-making is crucial. In the future, our selves - who have the benefit of hindsight - will be better equipped to learn from our experiences.