Gold rises as yen surge weakens dollar; oil and Fed bets cap gains

Gold prices saw a slight increase on Tuesday, buoyed by a strong Japanese yen and heightened bets on the Bank of Japan raising interest rates. However, concerns over energy inflation curbed the gains. The XAU/USD pair rose 0.5% to $4,430.40, while Gold Futures held steady at $4,475.61. The US Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 98.76. Gold's recovery follows its previous week's decline, trading mostly around the $4,400 mark since July's low.

Inflation risks from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz kept the gains in check. Oil prices surged after fresh tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with Brent crude nearing $100 a barrel. Markets currently price a 60% likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week, influenced by the previous week's robust nonfarm payrolls report.

U.S. consumer price data expected later this week will determine if the recent uptick in rate hike expectations endures. Analyst Tony Sycamore of IG noted gold closed lower overnight at around $4,406 due to strong payrolls data and higher energy prices, expecting these factors to drive U.S. Treasury yields higher and negatively impact bullion.

China's central bank demand also continues to support gold, with the People's Bank of China accelerating purchases in August to the highest monthly level since 2023, despite rising metal prices.