Germany: why AfD won in Saxony Anhalt, and what happens next

Germany's AfD party made a strong showing in the September 6 state election in Saxony-Anhalt, coming close to securing a majority of the votes with 43.8%. This was nearly 4% higher than predicted, and was boosted by an increase in turnout to nearly 78% from the previous election in 2021. The results were far worse than expected for mainstream political parties, particularly the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) which saw its support plummet to 17.2% from 37.1% in 2021.

The AfD's surge in popularity was largely driven by former non-voters, as well as those who had previously supported the CDU. The polarized nature of the election, with many voters preferring an AfD-led government over one led by the CDU, had an impact on the other parties. The SPD and Greens received tactical support from CDU and Left Party voters to ensure they reached the 5% threshold required to win seats in the state parliament.

If the AfD is able to form a government, there are several possible paths forward. The most likely is a deal with the Social Democratic Party for the Left (SPD) and the Greens, as they both received support from CDU and Left Party voters to ensure they reached the 5% threshold. Alternatively, the AfD could seek support from the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (BSW), a party with left-wing economic policies and conservative stances on migration.

If these options fail, the AfD could turn to CDU MPs who have suggested a more open approach to working with the AfD.

The AfD's support was particularly strong among working-class voters, those with lower levels of education, and those who perceived their economic situation as poor. However, the party also performed well across all age groups and economic situations, suggesting that it is a more broadly popular party. The election results reflect widespread dissatisfaction with the state government led by the CDU, with 66% of voters expressing dissatisfaction and only 20% believing that the government would improve the country substantially in the coming years.

The AfD's success in Saxony-Anhalt has raised concerns about the party's ability to implement its hard-right manifesto and whether it confirms fears about the party being "right wing extremist". The party's performance in the state election will be closely watched by German intelligence and the public to see if it confirms these concerns.

The results of the election have made the position of CDU Chancellor Friedrich Merz even more challenging, as he is unlikely to benefit from the state election in Mecklenburg West Pomerania on September 21. Merz's party faces a tough battle against the SPD in the coming election, and will likely need to form a coalition with the AfD or other parties in order to gain power.