Expert says pullback in flights over Russia could carry major economic costs for Moscow

Aviation market expert Denys Antoniuk warns that restrictions on civilian flights over Russia could lead to significant economic repercussions for Moscow. On September 8, Antoniuk wrote in an NV Business column that Ukraine's warning to the global aviation industry about the escalating risks above Ukraine highlights the gravity of the situation.

On September 1, President Zelenskyy called for decisive action on flight safety, directing the statement towards those responsible for making such decisions. Ukraine officially informed the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) about the dangers of Russian airspace on September 2, urging efforts to halt civilian flights.

Antoniuk emphasized that any aviation restrictions would have major implications for Russia, given that Russian airlines transported 111.7 million passengers in 2024, including 84.7 million domestically. Due to its expansive landmass, air travel is crucial for many remote regions, as overland journeys can take days, whereas flights cover vast distances in mere hours.

The Moscow aviation hub, which manages a substantial portion of interregional traffic, is particularly at risk. Should Moscow airports experience significant disruption, the entire Russian air network could be affected. Antoniuk stressed that flight safety determinations are not solely made by Russian authorities; airlines, national aviation regulators, and insurers also evaluate the risks.

War-risk coverage costs may surge or become unavailable due to insurers' concerns. Despite the fact that Ukrainian drones do not directly target passenger aircraft, the issue lies in the fact that civilian airliners share airspace with Russian air defense systems, electronic warfare systems, and military radars. Antoniuk noted that the mere absence of a target does not ensure an aircraft's safety, citing past disasters like MH17, PS752, and AZAL8243.

Restrictions on Russian air traffic could arise through regulatory decisions, insurance changes, airline measures, or physical harm to aviation infrastructure. Antoniuk argued that the safest scenario involves international aviation reassessing risks and limiting flights preemptively, rather than reacting to catastrophic events.

Zelenskyy had previously warned airlines, insurers, and other international aviation participants about the dangers of Russian airspace, stating that it is becoming increasingly unsafe for airlines, insurers, and other stakeholders. He also mentioned that Russia's airspace would gradually close due to the war Russia initiated. Zelenskyy stressed that Ukraine does not wish to see civilian casualties and is warning other countries about the risks associated with flying over Russian territory.

In response, Ukraine formally alerted ICAO about the dangers of Russian airspace. President Putin swiftly asserted that Russian armed forces were instructed to prepare and execute large-scale strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Despite major airport disruptions caused by drones, the Kremlin insisted that flying to Russia remained safe.

Ukraine reacted to Zelenskyy's airspace warning, causing immediate market reactions. On the same day, Zelenskyy's remarks sent Aeroflot shares plummeting, Turkey's largest airline canceled flights to Russia, and some planes reportedly turned back while still in the air. On the first day following Zelenskyy's statement, 27 foreign airline flights to Moscow airports were canceled, with 21 flights grounded at Sheremetyevo and 22 at Vnukovo.

Following Ukraine's formal notification, ICAO updated its recommendations for protecting aircraft in conflict zones.