Exclusive poll: GOP's gains among Latinos fade in House battlegrounds
Data: Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision; Table: Russell Contreras/Axios Democrats have gained sharply with Latino voters in some of the country's most competitive House districts since 2024, a new Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision poll shared exclusively with Axios shows. Why it matters: President Trump came close to erasing Democrats' longtime advantage among Latinos in the last presidential…
A new poll commissioned by Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision suggests that the once-strong Republican advantage among Latino voters in key House districts is fading. The survey, which polled 1,500 Latino registered voters in 17 battleground congressional districts, reveals Democrats leading the generic 2026 congressional ballot by 58% to 35%. This 23-point margin is double the 11-point edge President Biden had over former President Trump in the same sample's 2024 vote.
In three Texas congressional districts - one on the Mexico border, another in suburban Fort Worth, and another in the Austin-San Antonio corridor - Latino voters' support for Democrats has surged from a self-reported 44-44 tie in the 2024 presidential race to a 56-36 favoring Democrats today.
In Florida, in two competitive districts, Latino support for Democrats has jumped from Trump +1 to Democrat +13. Interestingly, 11% of Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 now endorse Democratic congressional candidates. The poll also found that 63% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump's overall job performance, while 65% disapprove of his handling of prices and the cost of living, and 62% disapprove of his administration's immigration enforcement and deportations.
Despite his declining approval ratings among Latino voters, former President Trump still holds a significant amount of support in these districts. Eleven percent of Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 now support Democratic congressional candidates.
Political analysts attribute this shift to a growing dissatisfaction with Trump's immigration policies and high prices. Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, a partner at Hart Research, notes that Spanish-language media is crucial for engaging Latino voters in 2026 competitive congressional races.
Trump's immigration crackdown has run into resistance from these voters, who are not uniformly rejecting strict border enforcement. The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency has a 64% unfavorable rating among Latino independents.
The economy remains the top concern for Latino voters, outweighing immigration. Democrats hold an advantage on this issue, with 62% of Latino voters trusting Democrats more to lower prices than Republicans, who garner 36% support on this front.
Written by urgent.news from Axios's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
