El Nino set to intensify from November, temperatures could hit 40°C
KUALA LUMPUR: The El Nino phenomenon this year is expected to intensify from November, potentially surpassing the severity of the 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 episodes, said climatologist Professor Emeritus Dr Fredolin Tangang.
The El Nino phenomenon is anticipated to intensify in Malaysia starting from November, possibly surpassing the intensity of the 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 episodes, according to Professor Emeritus Dr Fredolin Tangang, a climatologist. Temperatures could potentially soar up to 40 degrees Celsius, particularly in March and April of the following year.
This may heighten the risk of drought, forest fires, and haze, especially in Sabah and northern Sarawak early in the year. Dr Tangang indicated that based on the latest predictions from various international climate forecasting centers, this El Nino could be one of the strongest ever recorded, potentially matching or even exceeding the severity of the previous major El Nino events.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared the beginning of the 2026/27 El Nino on June 11 after the Nino 3.4 Index reached +0.7 degrees Celsius, surpassing the El Nino threshold. Both the APEC Climate Centre and the United States Climate Prediction Center have projected a more than 90 percent probability that the phenomenon will reach at least the strong El Nino category.
If El Nino coincides with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the conditions could be even more concerning, as it typically results in drier weather in Southeast Asia, potentially exacerbating the risk of forest and peat fires, particularly in Sumatra and Kalimantan.
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