El BCE subirá los tipos al 2,5%, pero dividido sobre futuros movimientos

The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to raise interest rates to 2.5% in its latest cycle of inflationary pressure. This will mark the second increase in this new period, as data on inflation is tightening the purse strings. Following the confirmation of this decision on Thursday, the ECB will have tackled the second hike in rates since the last fiscal year, reaching levels not seen since March of last year.

All members of the ECB's governing council, chaired by Christine Lagarde, have publicly supported the rate hike, which had been anticipated at the monetary summit in July. Factors such as the normalization of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, impacting the Strait of Hormuz and subsequently energy prices, have contributed to the decision. Inflationary pressures have strengthened, making the case for an increase quite clear.

Recent statements from practitioners such as Gediminas Šimkus (President of the Bank of Lithuania) and Primo Dolenc (Governor of the Bank of Slovenia) have emphasized the arguments for a rate hike in September to protect the inflation target. The Bundesbank, responsible for hosting the monetary policy meeting, chose a recreational facility in Steglitz-Zehlendorf, near Berlin, for this occasion.

ECB President Joachim Nagel endorsed the decision, stating that the outcome of the meeting is quite predictable. However, uncertainty remains regarding potential future adjustments.

While inflation data suggests a cooling effect, remaining contained at around 3%, the energy crisis has driven general prices up by more than 10%. The need for another rate hike after the expected move this week remains unclear, with Gabriel Makhlouf (Governor of the Bank of Ireland) stating that patience is crucial. Dimitar Radev (Governor of the Bank of Bulgaria) also advocates for patience, while ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel argues that the current policy rate may not be sufficient to bring inflation back to the target in the medium term, necessitating further tightening.

The next decision will likely be a pause in the October meeting, with a reassessment of inflation data before deciding on any additional adjustments in December.