Coffee exports top $6B in 8 months

Vietnamese coffee exports reached $6 billion within the past eight months, according to the Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association. However, this figure dropped by 11.2% due to lower prices, the association reported. The European Union and the United States remain the primary markets for Vietnamese coffee, while Asian countries like China are emerging as new growth areas for the sector.

Nguyen Nam Hai, the association's chairman, expressed optimism about future growth in both volume and prices. He cited several factors that could support coffee prices, including climate change, heavy rainfall delaying harvesting in Brazil, and the El Niño weather phenomenon affecting Asia later in 2026 and 2027. Additionally, low inventory levels and the upcoming European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) deadline on December 30, 2025, present opportunities for Vietnamese coffee to boost exports.

To meet sustainability standards, particularly the EUDR, exporters will need to focus on deep processing and improving product quality. Many buyers are prioritizing EUDR-compliant Vietnamese coffee for contracts to be signed starting in October, which could result in an 8-10% increase in export volume. EUDR-compliant shipments are anticipated to fetch prices around $50 per tonne, surpassing conventional coffee.

Despite these opportunities, Hai cautioned that the market faces potential challenges that could suppress prices. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts increased coffee production in major producing countries for the 2026-2027 crop year compared to the previous year. Global coffee supply is projected at approximately 189 million bags, while consumption in key markets like the U.S. and Europe is expected to be around 179 million bags, creating a surplus of 10 million bags that could exert downward pressure on prices.