A Forgotten Soviet Waterway Could Give China a New Arctic Trade Route

China, Russia, and Kazakhstan are exploring the potential of revitalizing a long-forgotten Soviet-era waterway as a potential new trade route in the Arctic. This route would utilize the Irtysh and Ob rivers, providing a pathway for Chinese goods to be exported from Russian Arctic ports. The Ob-Irtysh system previously saw an annual cargo volume of 9 million tons in the 1970s, but it plummeted to near-zero after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

In recent years, Kazakhstan and Russia have revisited the idea of reviving the route, with China expressing renewed interest. The Ob-Irtysh route offers economic and geopolitical advantages to all parties involved. However, substantial challenges lie ahead, including the need for significant infrastructure investments, the time required to implement changes, and potential shifts in global economic and geopolitical landscapes.

Kazakhstan aims to increase the river's cargo volume to 2.5 million tons per year by 2028 and establish dock and loading facilities capable of handling 4 million tons annually. The plan envisions passenger service to boost tourism, but achieving these goals will require billions of dollars in investments.

Recently, Russia's backing for the Ob-Irtysh project has gained momentum, driven by the ongoing war in Ukraine. The bypass route could help Russia circumvent Western sanctions and secure necessary supplies for its military and civilian populations. China's stance on the idea has also shifted, moving from skepticism to cautious approval. A report by the South China Morning Post suggests that China may see the route as a way to diversify its trade routes and mitigate risks in the event of a conflict with the United States.

However, the realization of the Ob-Irtysh trade route faces numerous challenges, including ice-bound sections of the Ob, low water levels, and Kazakhstan's share of the river acting as a significant chokepoint. Additionally, the construction of hydropower plants on the river has historically disrupted cargo traffic. The use of the Irtysh for hydropower generation adds complexity to regulating water levels for river traffic.

Another potential obstacle is the ongoing dispute over water usage in western Xinjiang Province, where the Irtysh originates. China has diverted significant volumes of water from the river for agricultural purposes, leading to a 22% decline in water flow to Kazakhstan. This raises questions about the viability of the trade route if China prioritizes agriculture over trade.

Ultimately, the Ob-Irtysh trade route presents a complex web of political, economic, and environmental considerations that must be carefully weighed before implementation.