$100 Brent Looms as China’s Oil Buying Rebounds
One of the reasons why the price of oil failed to soar during the "actively kinetic" phase of the Iran war, when shipments through Hormuz were effectively halted and the world faced a shortage of about 10-15 million barrels of oil per day, is that Chinese oil demand suddenly evaporated. Whether due to a sharp slowdown in the economy (which, after the sudden "recap" of China's banks, appears quite…
Brent crude oil prices are on the rise, poised to surpass $100 per barrel for the first time since May, as China's oil buying surges across global markets, Bloomberg reports. This reversal in demand follows a period of weak Chinese demand during the Iran war, when the Brent-Shanghai crude spread traded as low as -$20. The renewed interest in Chinese oil imports is driven by disruptions in the Hormuz chokepoint, limited Iranian supplies, and a recovery in the Chinese economy.
Chinese refineries, which previously relied on discounted Iranian barrels, are now paying premiums for various grades of crude, with Congo's Djeno crude fetching as much as $20 over ICE Brent. As refinery margins improve and inventories are restocked, Chinese refiners are ramping up purchases, but smaller independent refiners, or "teapots," face significant pressure due to the collapse of access to traditional Iranian and Venezuelan supplies.
Goldman Sachs' energy expert, Daan Struyven, anticipates a potential spike in Brent prices to $120 if shipping disruptions worsen in the Middle East, recommending investors to hedge geopolitical risks by longing in natural gas and refined-oil products.
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