Russia has enough resources to wage war through 2028, Ukraine's military intelligence says

Ukrainian military intelligence has revealed that Russia has sufficient resources to continue the war for at least two more years, potentially reaching 2028, according to an interview with HUR chief Oleh Ivashchenko. The main issues facing Russia's economy include a shortage of labor, a growing federal budget deficit, and deteriorating banking conditions, as reported by Ukrinform. Despite these challenges, Ivashchenko suggests Russia has enough resources to sustain its military efforts through 2027 and 2028.

Ukrainian tactics have increasingly targeted Russia's economic infrastructure, with long-range drone strikes aimed at Russian refineries, oil depots, factories, and tankers. Approximately 40% of Russia's oil-refining capacity has been crippled, causing fuel shortages and prompting the closure of oil exports. Ukraine has also broadened its target list, striking online retailers such as Ozon and Wildberries.

Russia's financial situation is worsening due to record military spending, which has driven the budget deficit to $82 billion in the first half of the year. Ivashchenko emphasized that Ukrainian strikes against Russian logistics in the Black Sea are forcing Moscow to seek more expensive routes for grain exports, which account for about 130 million tons annually.

Around 80 million tons are consumed domestically, while the rest is exported. Ukraine views Russia's grain exports as a vital resource sustaining the Russian economy, making them a key target in the ongoing conflict.