Rückversicherung: „Ein Großschadenereignis wird kommen" – Hannover-Rück-Chef fordert höhere Prämien

Clemens Jungsthöfel, CEO of Hannover-Rück, the world's third-largest insurer, predicts an upcoming "major damage event" in cyberinsurance business. He mentioned this at a gathering of insurers in Monte Carlo. Jungsthöfel warned that such events may occur due to factors like a major cloud service provider failure or a vulnerability in widely-used software.

He noted that premiums often don't accurately reflect these risks, which are amplified by the increasing reliance on digital infrastructure due to advancements in AI, cloud services, and the dominance of a few providers. Hannover-Rück currently holds a 500 million Euro portfolio in this area. Moody's has also warned about cumulative risks in cyber risks and AI-related infrastructure like data centers.

Jungsthöfel emphasized the need for diversified products to cover different risks, such as parametric coverage that triggers payments when a pre-defined threshold is reached. He cautioned that some cumulative risks could be so large that they exceed the private insurance market's capacity, suggesting that public-private partnerships might be necessary.

Other insurance companies, like Munich Re, are also expanding their direct insurance business in this area, responding to increasing pressure on their returns. The Monte Carlo meeting of insurers continues, aiming to set conditions for the next year. The price pressure is expected to get worse, as years of profitable low major claims have led to an oversupply of capacity, driving prices down.

Several rating agencies, including S&P and Fitch, expect further price reductions in 2027, not just due to the large capacities of traditional insurers, but also due to increased competition from alternative capital providers. The agencies also anticipate that insurers will have to adjust their terms to the changing conditions. This price decline affects the portion of revenues insurers must allocate to damage regulation, management, and distribution.

For large players like Munich Re, Swiss Re, and Hannover Rück, this means additional pressure on their returns. Jungsthöfel warned against drawing hasty conclusions from the relatively low first-half 2026 damage claims, emphasizing that longer-term trends still show an upward trajectory, with increasingly frequent severe storms, wildfires, and droughts.

He noted that while margins in natural catastrophe insurance remain thin, Hannover Rück historically has been underrepresented in this segment and wants to selectively take on more risk by pricing appropriately. Growth in casualty insurance is expected to come mainly organically, benefiting from Hannover Rück's long-standing business relationships. The company's low cost structure is praised as a competitive advantage.