Las aseguradoras aumentan el riesgo mientras los pagos caen a su nivel más bajo en 20 años

Insurance companies are raising risks while payouts reach the lowest level in two decades, according to sector executives. Capital inflows into property and liability insurance are driving down premiums, as lower costs and natural disaster losses have led to record profits for property and liability insurers. In 2026, combined indexes for insurers—a measure of claims and costs as a percentage of premiums—hit their lowest level since before the financial crisis, with global insurers paying 88 cents for every dollar of premium.

However, industry executives are sounding the alarm about an impending crisis, with premiums falling faster than considered rational. Patrick Tiernan, CEO of Lloyd's of London Market, says premiums are falling faster than deemed rational. David Flandro, head of sector analysis at Howden Re, adds that reinsurers are exiting historic highs and benefitting from a relatively benign risk environment, as capital inflows have increased competition.

However, Flandro warns that the party has been short-lived, given the years of large claims preceding it. Insurance premiums are cyclical, with prices rising sharply after major terrorist attacks or high-value property disasters like earthquakes in Japan or hurricanes in Florida, attracting new participants and competition, which gradually lowers premiums until another major disaster reignites the cycle.

This process has intensified in recent years with the entry of private investors seeking returns during boom years. According to brokers and insurers, market conditions are similar to 2006. In 2005, unprecedented storms like Hurricane Katrina led to a surge in claims. Insurers raised prices, and in 2006, recorded relatively moderate losses, resulting in large profits and increased competition.

According to insurance brokers, it is precisely during these periods, when insurers seek new and creative sources of growth, that historically they have struggled to assume too much risk at inadequate prices. Swiss Re CEO Andreas Berger warns that while global catastrophe losses have been increasing, totaling over $100 billion in losses over the last five years, no hurricane struck continental U.S. soil last year, and storm claims were scarce.

Insurers have relaxed policy terms and outsourced sales to general agents and brokers without insurance company licenses. Moody's warned this month that delegated underwriting is introducing more risk and could weaken the underwriting control as insurers manage complex and emerging risks through these mechanisms, including cyber, climate, and geopolitical risks.

Insurers are also venturing into emerging risks such as data centers, semiconductor chip depreciation, and financial risks like bank loan defaults. Berger adds: "We've seen this movie before. Pursuing growth can be dangerous."