It is the end of Iran's Islamic Republic as we know it

The article asserts that the Islamic Republic of Iran is nearing the end of its existence, despite the regime persisting for now. The gap between the regime's empty promises and the harsh realities faced by ordinary Iranians is increasing. Factors like corruption, poor governance and crippling Western sanctions have significantly reduced the population's quality of life, with items like bread becoming scarce.

Military conflicts do not necessarily create a crisis of legitimacy, but they expose the regime's shortcomings. When a regime claims to be the protector of security and sovereignty, military attacks reveal that it could not shield the country from war or foreign interference. The question arises: what good were decades of building military strength and regional influence if they could not safeguard the nation from conflict and penetration?

As the war and sanctions persist, the regime finds it more difficult to demand further sacrifices from its society already burdened with economic and social hardships. The question then emerges: if the war ceased immediately, would hostilities at home replace confrontations abroad? History provides examples of regimes that fell not only when their enemies defeated them militarily but also when they lost the ability to convince their society that survival offered the only path to stability and the future.

The article highlights the crucial role of Iran's last remaining bargaining chip: the Strait of Hormuz. With its regional proxy card nearing depletion, Tehran relied on this waterway to exert pressure on Washington, regional countries, and the global community. However, this tool now appears to be biting its wielder. Washington has effectively transformed military and economic pressure into a new political reality: an Iran with diminished capacity to finance its proxies.

Consequently, the potential end of the war might prove less significant than the aftermath it brings. Even if the regime endures for some time, we may already be observing the onset of its demise.