iPhone 18 Pro Event Could Hit Apple Shares, KeyBanc Warns

Apple's highly anticipated September 9 iPhone announcement event may have a negative impact on the company's stock, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets. In a research note, KeyBanc warned that the event could prompt investors to consider pricing decisions and the potential effects of higher costs on demand and margins. The investment firm noted that Apple is faced with a dilemma: either increase prices across the board to counteract margin pressure, which could lead to reduced unit volumes and consumer resistance, or raise prices selectively.

This selective pricing approach could draw more attention to Apple's margins and potentially result in additional price hikes in the future.

KeyBanc currently holds an "Underweight" rating on Apple and has set a $250 price target, which currently stands below the company's share price of $324.96. The firm projects that the total iPhone 18 lineup will reach approximately 80 million units during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 and the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, a decrease from roughly 91 million units the previous year.

This decline is largely attributed to the absence of a base iPhone 18 model during this product cycle, along with the expectation of higher pricing and a more diverse product lineup that may partially offset the lower sales figures.

KeyBanc anticipates a $150 price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro, pushing its price to $1,249, and a $200 increase for the iPhone 18 Pro Max, raising its cost to $1,399. Additionally, the firm expects the foldable iPhone Ultra to launch at $2,199. The investment bank also highlighted a historical pattern of Apple shares experiencing a decline around iPhone announcements.

On average, the stock has experienced a 0.72% drop on the announcement day over the past five years and a 1.22% decline five trading days later. Apple's highly publicized "Surprise and Shine" event is scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. Pacific time on Wednesday, September 9.