HDE-Konsumbarometer: Aufschwung ohne Vertrauen – Verbraucher halten ihr Geld zusammen

Despite recent economic indicators, German consumers lack confidence in a self-sustaining economic recovery, according to the HDE Consumer Barometer for September. The index rose by 0.52 points to 94.7, but only offset the decline from the previous month. The barometer now stands 1 point lower than in September 2025 and 2 points below September 2024 levels.

Calculated monthly by HDE Research Institute for the trade association HDE, the indicator is based on a representative survey of around 1,600 households. Recent better economic signals had shown up, yet consumers remain cautious. Rising prices are a major concern, with August seeing a 2.9% increase in living costs. Energy prices in North Rhine-Westphalia fell for electricity and gas but rose sharply for heating oil by 33.6%.

Food prices stayed almost constant, with some items like salad, carrots and eggs rising sharply, while milk products became cheaper. Rising inflation has also led the European Central Bank to expect another interest rate hike in September, which consumers also anticipate. Increased interest rates, however, can slow overall economic activity, especially with credit purchases becoming more expensive.

Higher wages have not kept pace with inflation, leaving many workers with no real income increase. Social security contributions have also risen, leaving little additional income for many employees. The labor market shows no signs of improvement, with unemployment figures hovering around three million. Andrea Nahles, head of the Federal Agency for Labor, described the development as "little dynamic."

Unemployment is still about one-third higher than before the pandemic, with 777,000 more people unemployed in August compared to April 2019. The automotive industry's dramatic job cuts may also increase workers' concerns about job security. Retail sales declined for the second time in five years, dropping 3.4% in July compared to the previous month.

This follows a similar decline in July 2021. Improving retail consumer sentiment is crucial, as the barometer currently sits at the level seen during the second COVID-19 lockdown, which has heavily impacted the retail sector. Factors such as the heatwave, higher fuel prices, and the loss of the fuel discount contributed to the fall in retail sales.

Food retail fell 0.8% and non-food retail by 4.8% compared to the previous month. The economy shows some signs of recovery, but consumer sentiment remains a major hurdle for the German economy.