Germany built a ‘firewall’ so the far-right could never take power again. It just failed in Saxony-Anhalt

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, founded 13 years ago, has grown into a significant political force in Germany but has never been part of any governing body. This absence is attributed to a "firewall" preventing cooperation with the far-right, anti-immigrant party. In the recent election of Saxony-Anhalt, an eastern German state, AfD secured a landslide victory, winning 43.8% of the vote, more than double its 5-year-old performance in the state.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's center-right Christian Democrats, who previously upheld the firewall, lost nearly half their support. The firewall, designed to prevent AfD from entering power, now faces its biggest test.

Mainstream parties in Germany have consistently refused to collaborate with AfD, considering it an extremist group, especially in view of the country's Nazi history. Despite Germany's historical commitment to preventing nationalism and racial superiority, the country now finds itself vulnerable to far-right sentiments. AfD has dismissed accusations of undemocratic or anti-constitutional behavior, persistently defying the firewall.

In response to AfD's victory, other parties have struggled to maintain the firewall. The AfD candidate for governor, Ulrich Siegmund, plans to become the first far-right state government head in Germany's post-Nazi history and has signaled intentions to form a governing majority with other parties. Siegmund has even expressed his willingness to cooperate with the hard-left BSW party, which received 5.3% of the vote. BSW shares a Russia-friendly stance and opposition to immigration with AfD but diverges on other issues.

The formation of a government excluding AfD would be challenging, as it would require collaboration from all elected parties – CDU, Social Democrats, the Greens, the Left Party, and BSW. This coalition would be highly unusual, complicated, and unstable. A potential governing majority in this coalition involves only three additional lawmakers from other parties, which could lead to a far-right state government in Saxony-Anhalt for the first time since World War II.

Political analyst Volker Resing suggests that BSW could play a decisive role in this scenario, but the likelihood of collaboration remains unclear.