Gavin Newsom’s first 2028 test: This fall, in Nevada

California Gov. Gavin Newsom's potential 2028 presidential bid is facing a crucial test in neighboring Nevada, with the upcoming gubernatorial race serving as a preview. GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo is attempting to link high Nevada fuel prices, largely imported from California, to "Gavin Newsom's energy policies." Lombardo criticizes California as expensive and overly regulated, while targeting Newsom's Democratic opponent, Attorney General Aaron Ford, for accepting Newsom's endorsement.

Lombardo asserts that the contrast is clear: he is fighting against Newsom's agenda, while Ford seeks to import it into Nevada. This could be a political test run for Newsom in 2028, when he may seek a primary victory in Nevada, a state where one-fifth of its residents were born in California. Nevada Democratic Party chair Donna West notes that Californians understand the high costs of living in California and recognize Newsom's effective governance.

Newsom's office has declined to comment, but a source close to the governor expressed delight at Republicans spending to "plaster Newsom's name across a key early state." The source emphasized that Republicans are concerned about an endorsement from someone leading the 2028 Democratic field in Nevada by nearly 2-to-1, based on a November 2025 Emerson poll.

Ford dismisses Lombardo's attacks, stating that gas prices increased immediately after the war began in February. He believes people are seeing and remembering the impact firsthand. The demonization of California is not new in Nevada politics, but the stakes are higher this year as Newsom explores a presidential bid and needs to perform well in Nevada to build momentum for the nomination and the general election.

Republicans have long criticized Californians for contributing to housing shortages and rising prices in Nevada. Lombardo's current strategy focuses on California's energy policies, arguing that they cause fuel prices to soar and negatively impact Nevada families. A recent poll shows Newsom's favorability rating is 20 points underwater in Nevada and losing in a hypothetical 2028 head-to-head with Vice President JD Vance.

Lombardo-aligned Republicans have launched an ad campaign highlighting Newsom's endorsement of Ford, further tying the attorney general to the California governor.